CLEARING THE FOG with Lt. Col. Chris Ophardt 7/2/26

Transcript

SPEAKER_03 0:12

And joining us live is the retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Chris OPart. Where in the world is Chris today?

SPEAKER_00 0:19

Blue Ridge, Georgia. Good morning. Happy 4th of July.

SPEAKER_03 0:23

You love those mountains, huh?

SPEAKER_00 0:25

Where do people from the beach go on vacation? The mountains.

SPEAKER_03 0:29

Is it hot or cool?

SPEAKER_00 0:31

So it is extremely hot for up here, but not 109 heat index.

SPEAKER_03 0:35

Okay. Thanks a lot.

SPEAKER_00 0:37

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 0:38

All right. What's on your mind today?

SPEAKER_00 0:40

Well, uh, so first let's uh let's talk about Iran. And they're kind of drawing out the peace accords as is what they do. And this is their playbook since 2003. You know, we'll agree to things that are easy to agree to and make you feel like you're getting progress, but really you're not getting any closer to the main issues like the nuclear materials. Um, but this time around, I think the president and vice president and secretary of state are doing a much better job at drawing what the lines are when it comes to military force. Um Vice President Vance came out the last couple days and said, listen, we'll use military force if you go anywhere near the nuclear materials. It's it's gonna we're just gonna go. So they've clearly laid out how they're gonna use um military forces if it comes to that. So Iran has a better idea of okay, this is this is the non-negotiables, this is what we're gonna have to get to. So, I mean that's that's going to help in the long run, um, when it comes to to these things. And as we g approach the sixty-day deadline, um, you know, we'll be able to hopefully push forward on some of the issues. Um the Oman opened up a new shipping lane that's a lot closer to its shores, which helps will help with security. So even if military force does have to be used again, ships should still be able to go through the strait. Um, much and you know, so they're weakening Iran's negotiating position um is what we're spending this time doing, which is a good thing. It's it's extremely well thought out by the administration.

SPEAKER_03 2:17

Now, um I was reading that Trump was uh presented with options of like, you know, an all-out decimation of Iran, and he said, no, no, let's just stick with Do you think he's just doing that for the Fourth of July celebration? And then after that, we heard that you know there there it may be a window for fees to be charged of some sort. Is that true?

unknown 2:44

I don't know.

SPEAKER_00 2:45

I don't I don't think that'll come to that. And the options, they always present the president with options, and it was when we were starting to escalate again. And yes, that was one of the options presented, as every president when we've done military action has been presented with that option. Um and I think knowing and saying that this is where he's so good at negotiating, like the Iranians they have to respect it. You know, if President Biden came out and said that, they would have laughed and said that's never gonna happen. We'll never do that because you so they all know Trump will. And so that helps that helps us in the negotiating table when to get this actual peace deal done, not just a concession to Iran.

SPEAKER_02 3:24

What a difference the president makes, huh?

SPEAKER_00 3:26

I know. It it is amazing a difference the president makes.

SPEAKER_03 3:30

So we understand, okay, that talks are continuing. Um they may go beyond the 60 days if they feel they're going in the right direction, no new agreements have been announced, the military option was presented but not activated. Everybody's on the ready. Um where do you see it going? Because is it a little bit of that feeling of good cop, bad cop where Trump's like, no, no, pumping the brakes, and you know, the military's ready to go. Uh, you know, is it that or do you think we're gonna get there?

SPEAKER_00 4:04

My biggest I I think we're gonna get there, but my my caution is that Iran always overplays its hand. It always thinks it has a bigger advantage than it does. And then you know the only and partly that's because of what Obama did with the um with his agreement. They're like, man, if we can get this from a US president, we can do it to anybody. Um, but that's always and they have the entire time. So we'll see, and we'll see. So this weekend I think they're trying to hold the funeral for the Grand Aitola. So we'll see if that changes negotiation or how that all shakes out, because they're expecting mass crowds. Um, but I don't know what that means, and I don't know. I mean, they've been on a you know, murder spree of all the dissidents that they possibly could find or even think. Um so we'll see how that all plays out this weekend. Of course, I don't think it's any coincidence that they're gonna try to hold in on the Fourth of July weekend. Um most of us won't be paying attention um if something goes wrong. Um even the even people like me will unplug for a couple hours and not be yeah, not be following my phone. So I think that's a ploy on their part as well to try to they'll talk about how amazing the crowds are and everything else, and then they'll hope that nobody's paying attention to whatever else is going on.

SPEAKER_03 5:27

Interesting. We're speaking with uh retired army lieutenant colonel Chris Opart. Now, um do we know is the Strait of Hormuz like totally open? Is it like is uh is all the traffic actually going through or only certain ships?

SPEAKER_00 5:49

So so from what the reports say, it's open. The problem that I know a lot of the companies have is that they had to leave skeleton crews and get people off ships and everything because of how long they were stuck there.

SPEAKER_03 6:03

Okay.

SPEAKER_00 6:04

And they've got to resupply the food on the ships and everything, because they're about to go on a four-month voyage out at sea. So I think that's partly, and of course they all can't go into port at the same time. So I think that's partly the issue, too, is that yeah, stuff that's leaving port right now is going through the straits. Stuff that's stuck there is starting to move out, but they've got to resupply the ships, they gotta get the people back on the ships, um, and then that not everybody can go at the same time. So it's slowly um unbottlenecking, and um the you'll I mean you'll see it with the prices. The you know, oil prices keep coming down and have stabilized, so you know that stuff's flowing through there.

SPEAKER_02 6:45

And add to that, Lieutenant Colonel, uh the oil that we've been working on refinering or refining and everything else, we've been trying to flood the market in in uh preparation for this for the last six months, and as you know, it takes time. It's starting to filter through.

SPEAKER_00 7:00

Yep, starting to filter through. Um, and then China's also released a lot of its stockpile as well. That was something that'll never be reported on. Is you know, I think Trump and Yi, when they got together, he kind of passed China, and China obliged, realizing that Iran's not somebody really because they're actually impacted in like California. Um they use a lot of Iranian oil. Um, they're one of the biggest buyers of Iranian oil. So they were their economy is stagnant right now, and so they they released their reserves as well to help with the keep the oil prices down. But we'll have to see because Venezuela, we were expecting them to come on. Oh yes, we were expecting them to start coming on and start refining more oil, but they are gonna be set back years um based on the damage and um all the uh aid that we're already having to send down there.

SPEAKER_03 7:52

You know, when you zoom out on what happened to Venezuela and exactly where it hit, it's like what why why? You know, like just in a spiritual manner. I just look at that and I'm like, okay, there's they're estimating that tens of thousands of people will be dead. You know, hundreds of buildings have been completely destroyed. We're talking about a $10 billion loss. Um it's ever here with oil, they've been moving toward expansion with Chevron and L. Reuters reported production at 1.05 million barrels per day earlier this year. Now, we have no idea. No idea. We have merit humanitarian crisis, over 2,000 people actually found thousands of injured, tens of thousands displaced, hospitals overwhelmed. I mean Do we have a plan for this?

SPEAKER_00 8:47

I I So it's yes, we do. Um, and this is where I think you're gonna find what Rubio and President Trump did with USAID by refocusing it.

SPEAKER_01 8:58

Okay.

SPEAKER_00 8:59

I believe that they're gonna be able to respond faster. Um and the fact that you've you've seen people and the and you know, of course, reporters are always looking to embarrass the United States from around the world, they're mad at their government. Like every time you read the the news excerpt, it's not like where's the United States? It's why is the military looting supplies from us? Why are these police doing this? Why are these government officials taking things? Um, and you're seeing, you know, and reading 900 US Army personnel are already moving um to that way with the USAID um and they're you know getting their supplies down there. So I think you're gonna see in the end, I mean, the d the damage is is just catastrophic, as you said, almost like biblical um in a way. And it's gonna take time, but I think you're gonna see that the streamlined USAID isn't wasting on projects in Africa um that are ridiculous, like we've all read about in the news, um, and were able to actually get personnel and flex down the their emergency personnel. Um and the response teams that everyone said was going to, my friend was actually on one of them when it was USAID. Now that it's folded into State Department, um, they all they kept the people that they really needed to keep. So, you know, he got hired back on in the State Department to do the same role because this is what they were supposed to do to begin with. Go to disasters around the world and provide U.S. aid uh when we needed to, not run long-term liberal you know, programs overseas.

SPEAKER_03 10:34

Conversion therapies and all things and gay systems. Um I wanted to ask you one more question. Uh last night or overnight, we saw well, we heard that Russia Ukraine really hard. It was like they attacked Ave with 74 missiles and 500 drones. Um they killed dozens of people, injured more many more. And Ukraine is saying, hey, we need more patriot air defense systems. And when you look into the story, it said that they were retaliating against Ukraine hitting them. Um and then the first time.

SPEAKER_00 11:20

Yeah. So so the short answer is yes. Now, to Zelensky's actually woken up, and I think Trump did a very good job of handling him. Um he's called on a ceasefire at current lines ever every every time there's an attack. He's saying, Listen, let's do the ceasefire current lines. We have reality here, and Putin keeps blowing them off. Um they want concessions that essentially, and actually the last statement Putin put out was Ukraine will be part of the Russia again.

SPEAKER_01 11:50

Wow.

SPEAKER_00 11:50

It is our all of Ukraine. I mean, that has been his thing since day one, that it is a Russian territory that, you know, after the Cold War had no business breaking away. Um so yeah, I mean, it's and Putin is is on shaky ground right now. Um the by hitting the infrastructure in Russia, the war is finally coming to the civilian civilian population in Russia, and they're getting tired of it. Um the gas shortages that they're experiencing, inflation starting to go up.

SPEAKER_03 12:25

They're like they're like um take they're quote unquote paying uh the natives, like their versions of the Eskimos to like fight in the war, and they're bringing I don't know if they're still bringing slaves, the Uyghurs from North Korea. I don't know what's happening uh with that. But they're running out of people or something.

SPEAKER_00 12:45

They're running out of people. They don't have enough people to in the military, and he doesn't want to do a mass draft because then again, that's gonna make public outroar. We saw the same thing um in Afghanistan. That war drove out drove um was brought out over eight years and from eighty to eighty-eight in Afghanistan, and the Russians finally had to to leave, and then within their economy was a wreck. Um and we're seeing some of the same warning signs coming out again of the people are getting tired, they don't want to send their sons to Ukraine, they're they're done, let Ukraine be Ukraine, but the Russian and the oligarchs are starting to get upset too because they're getting cutting into their profits. Um, and that's when Putin's gonna start losing everybody. So he's got some strategic decisions to make, but he is gung-ho, pull on, I will bring the Soviet Union back. So I don't know if he's gonna take it.

SPEAKER_03 13:38

He's always said it.

SPEAKER_00 13:39

So he said it. Yep, that was his goal from the beginning.

SPEAKER_01 13:42

Mm-hmm.

SPEAKER_03 13:43

Wow, and they're just going to increase it, he said. Uh they're doing massive retaliatory strikes. So okay. We'll see what we're doing.

SPEAKER_00 13:53

And the biggest issue is we don't have enough patriot missiles to help Ukraine or the Middle East. Um, it takes it takes almost two years to build one missile. And so this full circle back to the industrial complex, how can you not produce munitions when we need them?

SPEAKER_03 14:10

And this is just helping Russia.

SPEAKER_00 14:12

Right. And it is. It's all it's only helping Russia.

SPEAKER_03 14:15

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 14:16

Um and but there we go.

SPEAKER_03 14:18

All right. Well, enjoy your Independence Day weekend and uh we'll see you back in a couple of weeks.

SPEAKER_00 14:24

All right, Liz. Thanks. It's great talking to you. Have a good fourth nick. All right.